tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post454747627715869931..comments2014-04-14T08:22:57.791-05:00Comments on Gray Matter: Moonkin T8 Set BonusesGraylohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12928540421337175942noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-72552487592363617182009-06-03T04:46:41.205-05:002009-06-03T04:46:41.205-05:00Small question - is it worth to change T7.25 to T8...Small question - is it worth to change T7.25 to T8.10?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-35272329261695562232009-06-02T07:39:06.087-05:002009-06-02T07:39:06.087-05:00@nin
I'm actually looking into this right now and...@nin<br /><br />I'm actually looking into this right now and will probably have something written up on it by tomorrow. I think the difference might come down to the idol bonus, but we shall see.Maestrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00115313553294837312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-82795949677888690162009-06-02T03:56:24.741-05:002009-06-02T03:56:24.741-05:00A wasted proc is on average for me 14k damage (it ...A wasted proc is on average for me 14k damage (it would have to crit for it to be wasted in the first place). I doubt the difference between a solar and a lunar eclipse is that big. Have you done any modeling that suggests this is worth giving up?ninnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-8419362861182944532009-06-01T16:17:53.235-05:002009-06-01T16:17:53.235-05:00Email me I had to stats for my psych degree
- Nere...Email me I had to stats for my psych degree<br />- NerenNerenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13315988594719979294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-54728372439027862042009-05-31T18:19:26.099-05:002009-05-31T18:19:26.099-05:00thank you for the reply. so if i understand you co...thank you for the reply. so if i understand you correctly, assuming a lunar rotation, equipping 4+ t8 pieces gives a weight increase of the equivalence of ~(130 + 150) = 280 spellpower. that is pretty massive :). i guess it's a simplification of the matter but having some "hard numbers" brings the math down to my level...helmetnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-65676194979626587502009-05-30T18:20:08.797-05:002009-05-30T18:20:08.797-05:00Thanks for all the responses to my Statistics ques...Thanks for all the responses to my Statistics question. It has given me a lot to think about and I my have to ask a few more questions in the future, but here are some of the fun things I've found since then. Most of my trials have a variance of around 50 DPS and Standard Diviation of about 7 or 8. Given that the mean is around 5k this seems very small to me so I am more confident in my numbers. Thanks for the help.<br /><br />@Anon1<br /><br />My model assumend that you wouldn't risk procing the wrong eclipse so, if the buff falls of the buff falls of. However, I will say though that on average you will proc eclipse within ten seconds. So, wasted procs should be few and far between.<br /><br />@Maestro aka Relevart<br /><br />As I said to anon my numbers assume that you don't risk proccing the wrong eclipse. I also agree that holding on to the 2T7 set bonus isn't a big deal. My napkin math says it worth about a 0.8% increase to DPS.<br /><br />@Hamlet<br /><br />Each of my numbers is independant of the other number. My 4T8 valuation assumes you have 2T8, but the valuation is the increase in DPS over the 2T8 set bonus. So each section is just for that set bonus.<br /><br />Regarding the 95 Spell Power figure, Several people asked was it worth going for 4T8 or should the skip it and go for hard mode gear. The 95 Spell Power figure was the minimum and was for a solar rotation.<br /><br />I don't have my spreadsheet available to me right now, but the Lunar rotation was around 130. The 2T8 set bonuses would be even higher then that. Probably around 150 or so.Graylohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12928540421337175942noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-23400950711650125932009-05-30T17:50:23.821-05:002009-05-30T17:50:23.821-05:00great writeup. i am doing a few gear lists myself ...great writeup. i am doing a few gear lists myself based on your weights limited to what reckon i have a chance of getting anytime soon (no hard modes basically). i just wonder about tier-bonus weights. is "95 additional spell power or its equivalent" as you mention here for 2p and 4p combined or 4p only? if so, what is the weight of 2p, and if both combined, what are the respective weights? thanks in advance.helmetnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-47471139604437403162009-05-29T05:39:45.525-05:002009-05-29T05:39:45.525-05:00Your estimate get's closer to the true average at ...Your estimate get's closer to the true average at a speed of the square root of the number of samples you are running. <br /><br />So incresing your sample size by a factor of 100 would improve the accuracy of the number by a factor of 10. If you think your already pretty close after 300-400 samples (and the number varying little after that is a useful way of saying that your pretty close) then increaseing to thousands will help a little but not a lot, so it's just a question of how long the extra samples takes you.<br /><br />Volatility of the dps is good a decent measure to look at. Probably quote it in terms of 10% of the time your dps will be above X and 10% below Y (You might t do this via running more stamples and looking at the percentiles). This is easier for most people to understand I think. <br /><br />I think an understanding of this could help in interpreting dps numbers and someone having a bad or great day could just be RNG. But on a full raid it feels to me like this averages out a lot across 15 or so dps each randomly having "good" or "bad" days.<br /><br />Feel free to mail me if you want more details or have any questions.<br /><br />Thx,<br />Centorious<br />kininebdfATgmailDOTcomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-51378913836125833682009-05-29T05:23:23.074-05:002009-05-29T05:23:23.074-05:00Anyway from tests on a dummy, and test on real cir...Anyway from tests on a dummy, and test on real circonstances (ulduar 10/25) :<br /><br />warth to proc eclipse as an average DPS (on a 10min fight) of 3100 -<br />starfire to proc eclipse average 3050.<br /><br />So we can say both are very very close now.sonakhttp://equi.reves-cdo.frnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-4430817867472301982009-05-29T04:41:12.168-05:002009-05-29T04:41:12.168-05:00Maestro: I'm guessing that will be dependent on ge...Maestro: I'm guessing that will be dependent on gear, but it should be easy to figure out if the difference in damage done during a solar eclipse instead of a lunar is greater than your average damage on a starfire. I doubt it is though. Solar has really gotten boosted.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-63441904368187780112009-05-29T00:34:47.957-05:002009-05-29T00:34:47.957-05:00Rather than run a single simulation with randomly ...Rather than run a single simulation with randomly generated numbers, it might be better to do N independent simulations with different sets of random numbers. That way you could do a true ensemble average.<br /><br />In statistical language, you're currently equating "time average" with "ensemble average", which is often true for quantities like mean DPS, but may not hold for higher order moments like the variance and won't let you get a reliable sense of the parameter sensitivity. Particularly if certain nonlinear effects like details of the eclipse mechanics are dominating the results.Jormundgardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11501483710006076616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-56186726939463435752009-05-28T20:43:05.060-05:002009-05-28T20:43:05.060-05:00The other statistic that would be interesting (to ...The other statistic that would be interesting (to a few) is some idea of the variance - range or even better would be the standard deviation / variance. E.g. a coin with 499 & 501 would have the same average ( 500) as a coin with 1 and 999. But the latter would have more spread - ten flips would be 4990-5010 vs 10-9990.<br /><br />The old way would be use Excel; but now the Cool Kids post an online Googel Doc spreadsheet. :-)<br /><br />Thx for a great article. I don't think people realize just how much the price of level200+ items can bounce around; you can save a lot of gold by planning ahead.Haguhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03726885305104254286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-31845944628242276632009-05-28T11:39:42.849-05:002009-05-28T11:39:42.849-05:00Very very interesting article on the T8 that answe...Very very interesting article on the T8 that answer a lot of interrogations about it.<br /><br />For your mathematical question : <br /><br />The problem of average is only encountered if the difference beetween two values are huge - as the different values for DPS (even crit) are not very "different" the average is quite a good measure (and simple to understand).<br /><br />So you are probably right in using the average.<br /><br />Speaking of statistic : the number of figures needed to be "ok" depends of the quality of the input. <br /><br />Anyway as your figure are mathematical results, with no "wrong figures" you can assume that 400 can be enough.<br /><br />Eg in poles (like for election) the "representative value" is about 1500. Doing a collect of 60 000 is irrelevant expect on a huge period of time (not the case here). <br /><br />So if you run 1500 iterations of your calculation it would be far enough to prove your figures.sonakhttp://equi.reves-cdo.frnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-53343605197951316402009-05-28T08:24:35.016-05:002009-05-28T08:24:35.016-05:00Oh, it's helpful to report both the mean and some ...Oh, it's helpful to report both the mean and some type of range term (ie. variance, standard deviation) for people who actually understand statistics (so we know not just what the average is, but also what the spread of your distribution looks like). However, other than people like me who live statistics... mean is probably the most informative thing that the average person knows how to interpret.Lissannahttp://restokin.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-4731230170626755912009-05-28T08:22:31.984-05:002009-05-28T08:22:31.984-05:00Types of descriptive statistics: Minimum, maximum,...Types of descriptive statistics: Minimum, maximum, range, mean (what you call "average"), median, mode.<br /><br />I tend to just report averages, and/or ranges.<br /><br />There is a trade-off between "sample size" and accuracy. After a certain point, you'll see very little return for your time (why the 300 trials gives you about the same average as 1000).<br /><br />If you wanted to run inferential statistics (ie. does solar or lunar have statistically significant differences?), then you may end up needing larger sample sizes to detect smaller differences...Lissannahttp://restokin.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-23349094850797336442009-05-27T18:25:07.443-05:002009-05-27T18:25:07.443-05:00ust a thought on the 4T8 for a Lunar cycle: What i...ust a thought on the 4T8 for a Lunar cycle: What if it pops in the precasting phase? Do you let it expire if you don't get an eclipse? Do you risk popping the wrong eclipse if it crits? I see this as being a logistical problem that decreases the value of 4T8 for a Lunar cycle.<br /><br />Also, in regards to the 2T8 and breaking 4T7, it allows you the freedom of possibly picking up two or three more Ulduar pieces. I do not value the 2T7 bonus that highly since IS rarely contributes more than 10% of my DPS anyway, amounting to a max of 1% DPS lost. I'd much rather chuck that and pick up some very nice non-set upgrades.<br /><br />~Relevart<br /><br />EDIT: I couldn't edit it so I deleted it and brought it here. I added a second thought up there.Maestrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00115313553294837312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-3036752523899028522009-05-27T18:12:50.106-05:002009-05-27T18:12:50.106-05:00Thanks for the info, is there any chance that you ...Thanks for the info, is there any chance that you could add the problem the instant SF can cause in a lunar rotation precast?<br />I mean i'm casting wrath to proc eclipse, i get the insta SF and instead of a lunar rotation i get a solar one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3232240169123589462.post-51458103484161826512009-05-27T18:03:32.099-05:002009-05-27T18:03:32.099-05:00I'm not a stats person (and my stats courses were ...I'm not a stats person (and my stats courses were much longer ago than yours), but what you are seeing with the 300-400 trials seems to be on par with polling type of statistics and is why polling a few hundred people is fairly accurate for a much larger pool of people.Hardyhttp://www.catamount.comnoreply@blogger.com