Warglaive Drama a Hoax

I posted earlier today about some "epic" loot drama over on Hyjal. Turns how it was all a hoax. The come clean post is here.

I don't feel stupid for buying it because it seems pretty plausable, and so may people seem to have bought into it as well.

Congratulations to Aquasheepa and Casual for pulling of a great prank.

Loot Council Gone Bad

I was checking out the WoW forums for some of my old servers and found this Post.

Please Note: In my brief time on Hyjal I had no contact with anyone in Casual or involved in this drama as far as I know. My comments are purely based on posts on the forums. Please to not take anything said here as an attack on the guild or its members both past and present.

Summary: The posted thread is already closed due to length and a vast majority of the posts are useless. So here is a quick summary.

Casual is the #1 ranked guild on Hyjal and has been clearing SWP for a couple of months. Dispite this expertise they have had bad luck when it comes to Epic drops. The Warglaive Off-Hand finally drops. The loot counsil has a decision to make. Give the Epic sword to a long time member Aquasheeps (who claims to be an original member), or to a new recruit who already has the Warglaive Main-Hand so that he can complete his set. They did the later. As a result Aquasheeps then took at least 200,000 gold from he guild bank and /gquit.

My Observations:
As an outsider with little information this is almost impossible to determine right and wrong, but I do find a couple of interesting points here.

1. Aquasheeps is being treated like a hero on the forums. Who new that someone could take 200,000 from a guild bank and a large chunk of the wow community would support him? I don't think this isreally support for Aquasheeps but is more of an anti-hardcore backlash. You don't be come the top guild on a server and one of the top guilds in the world without making some enemies. There are a lot of "Casual got what it deserves" posts which I think are mostly sour grapes.

2. There seems to be some in Casual who thinkAquasheeps was wronged even after he took the gold. One member did post on the forums saying that the counsils decision as cause some people to question if Casual is the best place for them and that he has been approched to quit with them.

3. I am a long time supporter Loot Counsil systems, but this level of drama would never occur with DKP as long as loot was distributed with in the rules. This level of drama is only possible with human interaction.

My Commentary:
Using the limited info available, it seems to me that both sides are wrong. The loot counsel bricked the choice in my opinion. Yes, having a set of warglaives on one person will improve raid DPS especially in SWP, but does that matter anymore. Casual has been clearing SWP for weeks, the little bit of extra DPS isn't going to change the guild ranking or make the fights all that much easier. Assuming that Aquasheeps was a long time valued member as he says, then he should have been rewarded for his dedication with the epic.

That said, Aquasheep way overreacted. If he really did help found the guild then, he was probably part of the discussion to use loot council. Some times people make mistakes. It sucks. I was in ZA the other day and the Hood of Hexing dropped. A mage rolled need on it even though she had T5 and won. I haven't even seen her wear it since then. Yes it does piss me off, but mistakes happen.

Ultimately the game should be played for the fun of it. So that we can see new fights that test our abilities. So that we can hang out with friends. Getting shiny purples and oranges are great, but nobody uses the level 60 legendaries anymore, other than to pull them out and say "hey, look what I got."

If a loot distribution issue causes you to go raid the Gbank and quit then there were probably other issues also. If the people you play with are friends then your not going to do it.

Anyway, good luck to everyone involved. This just proves one thing I had kind of suspected anyway, Hyjal Drama > Eitrigg and Garona Drama combined.

Toon Update: 9/29/2008

I am not getting to these types of post nearly as much as I would like. So, much stuff is happening with the expansion and the math around moonkin that I have had little time to write one of my more lighter blog topics. To those of you that like this type of post I apologize and promise that they will be more frequent when things calm down.

Burning Crusade Goals:
On 9/15/08 I posted 4 goals that I wanted to complete before the patch/expansion. Lets take a look at my progress.

1. Kill Kael - Status: Completed - WOOT!!!! I actually had a few things going in my favor that I didn't realize. LoE had downed Kael before patch 2.4 but only once, and the patched dropped less then a week later. So they didn't need to go back and get more people attuned. As a result there were several long time members that hadn't killed him or gotten their titles either. On top of that the guild has been having a little bit of drama that I was unaware of. Apparently the guild has been taking a little more hardcore view of raiding then some longtime raiders liked. As a result a line was drawn in the sand by the GM basically saying, "this is going to be our focus going forward. If you don't like it, we are sorry to loose you, but we will move on." As a result our raiding was a little up in the air for a day or two and the leadership decided to hit Kael and Vashj.

So, I've got the title and I can now put T5 instance completely behind me unless I want to go back for some fun. There is no longer a need to sign up for weekend pugs. The only bad news is that nether Kael or Vashj dropped a Druid token.

2. Clear BT and Hyjal - Status: Need Archie - Chance of Success: 50% - Clearing BT was no problem. I have actually done it a couple of times now. The question is will I get Archie. LoE has affectively dropped Hyjal from the regular raiding schedule. There just is not enough time to Clear Hyjal, BT, and get some decent attempts in on Sunwell. There is some talk of purchasing raid id's from guild who only get the first 3 or four bosses down, but who knows if that will happen. The good news is that I still have more then a month to get him down.

3. Get Bear Mount - Status: Completed - This was actually easier then I expected. I became a part of a regular bear run and many of the people on the run already had bears. Plus, the patch hasn't dropped yet so I've had a little more time.

4. Kill Something in SWP - Status: Open - Chance of Success: 50% - I haven't stepped foot into SWP yet, but we are headed there tonight and it looks like it will be come a part of our regular raiding schedule. Will we kill some bosses though?
There are a lot of vary good players in LoE so I am confident that the players are good enough. My only question is the encounter. I've read strats and stuff, but it's hard to know what a fight is like until you do it. I just don't know if we are geared enough to get him down. I think the chances are good, because most of our long time members now have 4/5 T6 or 5/5 T6, but there are several people like me who have a lot of T5 gear. I just know know, but I'm more confident then I was before.

Guild Update:
As you can see from my goals above I have cleared BT and such. The guild hasn't done anything new, but we are preping for taking on new content and such. From a personal level, it sounds like I am going to be promoted to an R1 (core raider). From what I've been told this means I am pretty much guaranteed a raid spot assuming that I show up on time and consistently and my performance doesn't drop significantly. So, yay for me.

Toon Update:
Graylo - With all of the BT and ZA runs I have gotten a couple of decent upgrades. I finally got [Hex Shrunken Head] out of ZA and I also picked up [Ring of Ancient Knowledge]. I haven't gotten any additional Tier pieces yet, but I should get some soon. Most of the regular raiders have everything they need, and I will finally have some DKP that I can spend.

Graypal - I finally bit the bullet and got his enchanting to 375. I ended up purchasing most of the mats to get the last couple of points, but I want to have him at max skill before the expansion drops. Other then that, he hasn't done much.

Grayfel - The big news here is that Grayfel got his epic flying mount. Some may question me spending so much gold on an alt, but I can't stand flying slow.
Other then that, he hasn't done much either. I've been trying to do the BRD Brewfest boss as much as I can so that I can get the trinkets, but the RNG has it in for me. I've seen the Tanking trinket and the Melee trinket drop 95% of the time. I've seen the Healing trinket drop 3 times, but the DPS trinket hasn't dropped a single time. At least I did get the healing trinket on both Grayfel and Graypal, so one the patch drops they will both be able to use it for DPS.

Grayvik - Is a new mage I started when I first transferred to Garona. I create him before Graypal and Grayfel transferred over, and I couldn't bring myself to start another Shaman when I have one at level 14 over on Eitrigg. Anyway, I've gotten him up to level 13. He will probably go a little higher before the expansion drops, but my guess is that he is going to be stuck at 20 something fairly soon. Once the expansion drops Graylo is going to get almost 100% of my time, and the rest is probably going to be spent on the priest and the warlock.

Bloated Rant

First off, I've scrapped the part three of my WotLK Spell series that was supposed to look at the talent Eclipse. I did it for a couple of reasons.

1. Murmurs has already done a lot of math on the WoW forums and specifically looked at Eclipse. You can find it here. The short version her analysis is that Eclipse is bad.

2. I saw this quote:

While I'm sure every class would say this, it's probably no surprise to you that Balance damage was low.

Way too low.We are addressing most of it through base spell damage changes to Wrath, Insect Swarm and especially Starfire. Hopefully that will give you some more talent choices because some of the damage talents will feel more optional (or as optional as more damage ever feels), instead of the bare minimum you need to be close to other casters. (src)

This quote seems to suggest that the bloat is here to stay. If they don't trim the balance tree then it will be impossible to pickup Eclipse, all of the damage increasing talents, and all of the mana regen talents. Something has go give, and we all know how important our mana and damage talent are. A gimmicky talent like eclipse just cant survive.

Blizzard's Faulty Bloat Logic:
It never ceases to amaze me how little blizzard understands it's players and how they play the game. Here is a basic truth about DPS players, DAMAGE TALENTS ARE NOT OPTIONAL. They never have been and never will be.

Increasing the base damage on our spells is great, but does anyone really think that is going to change how players spec?

Players that are serious about raiding are going to min/max there talent build. If a talent increases my DPS then I'm going to pick it up if at all possible. It's not an option because my primary roll is to DPS. If I'm not pushing out as much DPS as I possibly can the I shouldn't be in the raid, even if I'm first on the damage meter.

Optional talents should be situational in nature. Gale Winds is a perfect example of an optional talent. It provides a real benefit that isn't needed all the time. If my raids are short on AoE then it is a great pick up, but I'm not not going to take 2 points out of a talent that boosts my DPS 100% of the time to put them in a talent that I will use infrequently. A real option is do I want more AoE, more survivability, or pushback resistance.

The real kicker to this quote is how it shapes the comparison between Resto Druids and Moonkin. Now that Spell Damage and Healing have been combined into one stat (Spell Power), the differences between the two roll's is almost entirely Talent build.

As it is, a resto druid will be able to pick up many of a moonkin's key DPS talents by putting 31 points in the balance tree. They would still have 40 points to spend in the resto tree. This would result in a toon who's DPS isn't much below a "deep" moonkin's and can significantly out heal said moonkin. The only thing it costs is most of the raid utility, that now can be easily provided by other classes.

/end rant.

WotLK: What Spell Do I Use? - Spell Rotations

This is the second part in a three part series looking at what spells moonkin should use for WotLK Raiding. Part one looked at the basic math of our four main DPS spells. Part two looks at what spell rotations moonkin should use and wen. Part three on Eclipse is cancelled for now.

UPDATE: The numbers have been updated to include the new base spell values. The TL;DR version did change a little bit as the Starfire Rotation improved significantly.

Knowing the basic math behind each spell is nice and all but it doesn't give the whole picture. These spells are interrelated and preform best when used in conjunction with each other.

In this post I will look at four different spell rotations. I will review which are best in some situations, and which should be completely ignored.

If you don't care about all of the math or assumptions please feel free to skip to the bottom for the TL;DR version.

Assumptions:
1. All of my math is based upon the calculations I did in my DPS Basics post. Therefore, the same assumptions hold true.

2. Just to reiterate, I am excluding the Glyph of Wrath, because spell push back is hard to quantify. This is biased against Wrath, but I will try and acknowledge the issue in my conclusions.

3. I won't be using Starfire and Wrath in the same rotation. In the past some oave argued that Wrath you be the last spell in your rotation if you have less then 1.5 seconds left on your DoT. While this is technically true, I believe it complicates the rotation to an unreasonable level. Overly complicated rotations can lead to decreased DPS because of mistakes made in trying to execute them. Therefore, I will not be using this practice in my rotations listed below.

4. Moonfire and Starfire are assumed to be glyphed, but Insect Swarm is assumed not to be. There is no downside to the Moonfire glyph, and the Insect Swarm glyph only improves my conclusions and a rotations DPS if included.

5. The additional Moonfire damage from the Starfire Glyph will be attributed to the Starfire cast and not Moonfire.

6. All rotations are created using average cast times. These numbers can very significantly depending on the number of crits that occur and proc Nature's Grace.

Talent Build / Buffs:
I am using the same build to calculate these rotations as I used in the DPS Basics post. Please refer to it for specifics. However, I would like to highlight one additional talent.

Improved Insect Swarm - Increases the damage of your nuke spells based upon the DoTs on the target.
Nature's Splendor - Increases the duration of your Moonfire and Insect Swarm spells by 3 sec.

Creating a Spell Rotation:
Spell Rotations are defined by two charicteristics: DoTs and Cooldowns. Without DoTs or Cooldowns, we would just pick our best spell and spam it.

Moonkin don't have a "standard" long cooldown spells. Yes, you could include Starfall or Force of Nature, but realisticly they are not going to be included in any standard rotation. So, Moonkin rotations are going to be centered around our two DoTs: Moonfire and Insect Swarm.

With Nature's Splendor Moonfire and Insect Swarm have a duration of 15 seconds. Therefore all but one of the rotations will be centered around this 15 second DoT timer.

The rotation depend on how many "nukes" you can fit in the duration of the DoT(s). To do this we need to determine the average cast time of Starfire and Wrath and the average global cooldown for Insect Swarm and Moonfire.

Cast Times / Global Cooldowns:
As I said we in the assumpions, I am using the same stats as the Basic's post. That means my hypothetical moonkin has 11.31% haste, Starfire and Wrath have 30% crit, and Moonfire has 36% crit. Here is how you calculate each spell's cast time or global cooldown.

Starfire w/ Imp IS: (3 - (0.5 * (Crit + 0.03)))/ (1 + haste) = (3 - (0.5 * 0.33)) / (1 + 0.1131) = 2.5469 seconds

Wrath: (1.5 / (1 + haste))*(1 - Crit) + Crit = (1.5 / (1 + 0.1131))*(1 - 0.3) + 0.3 = 1.2433 seconds

Moonfire: (1.5 / (1 + haste))*(1 - Crit) + Crit = (1.5 / (1 + 0.1131))*(1 - 0.36) + 0.36 = 1.2225 seconds

Insect Swarm: (1.5 / 1 + haste) = 1.3476 Seconds

Improved Insect Swarm:
I didn't include this talent in my basics analysis because it is a very rotation dependent talent. However, it does have a significant impact on spell DPS. Here is how the equations are modified for this talent.

Wrath:

DPS = (((Base + (Spell Power * 0.67))*(1 + (0.32 + Imp IS)))*(1 + Crit)) / ((1.5/(1+Haste))*(1 - Crit) + Crit)
DPS = (((588 + (1800 * 0.67))*(1 + 0.32 + 0.03)))*(1 + 0.3)) / ((1.5/(1+0.1131))*(1 - 0.30) + 0.30)
DPS = (1,794* 1.35)*1.3 / (1.3476*0.7) + 0.3
DPS = 3,148 / 1.2433 = 2,532.25

Starfire:

DPS = (((Base + (Spell Power * 1.2))*(1 + 0.32))*(1 + (Crit + 0.03)) / ((3-(0.5 * (Crit + 0.03)))/(1+Haste))
DPS = (((1120 + (1800 * 1.2))*(1 + 0.32)))*(1 + 0.33)) / ((3 - (0.5 * 0.33))/ (1 + 0.1131))
DPS = (4330*1.33) / 2.5469 = 2,260.93

Glyphed DPS = Starfire DPS + (Moonfire Tick / 3)
Glyphed DPS = 2,260.93 + (1,119/ 3) = 2,633.93

Spell Rotations:
The different rotations fall into two catagories: Starfire rotations and Wrath rotations. First, I'm going to compare the Starfire rotations and the Wrath rotations to find out which is the best Starfire rotation and which is the best Wrath rotation. Then, I am going to compare the Starfire and Wrath rotation to each other to find out which is best.

Starfire Rotations:
For these rotations I am assuming that Moonfire is already on the target. Therefore, I am ignoring the direct damage portion of the spell and the mana costs of the spell. This of course won't be true for all fights, but it should impact both rotations equally. Therefore, it should impact the analysis for now.

Moonfire, Starfire * X:
If Moonfire is already on the boss this is basically Starfire spam and therefore has the same DPS as shown above. So for my hypothetical moonkin this rotation has an average DPS of 2,633.98, and and averate DPM of 15.80.

Moonfire, Insect Swarm, Starfire * X:
The main question here is how many Starfire's can we cast while Insect Swarm ticks on the boss. Insect Swarm has a duration of 15 seconds talented and a GCD of 1.3476.

SF casts per IS: (15 - 1.3476) / 2.5469 = 5.36; rounded up to 6

So this means that on average our rotation will consist of 1 Insect Swarm cast and 6 Starfire casts. This results in a rotation DPS of :

Rotation DPS = (IS Dam + (SF Dam * 6)) / (IS GCD + (SF Cast Time * 6))
Rotation DPS = (4,220+ (6878 * 6)) / ( 1.3476 + (2.5469* 6))
Rotation DPS = 45,485 / 16.629 = 2,735.28

Rotation DPM = 45,485 / (304 + (435 * 6)) = 15.61

At a 30% crit rate the IS, MF, SF rotation does about 3.85% more DPS but is only 1.28% less mana efficent then the MF, SF rotation. Therefore, it is my suggestion that an IS, MF, SF*x rotation be your primary Starfire rotation in early raiding.

Wrath Rotations:

Insect Swarm, Wrath * X:
How many Wraths can we cast while Insect Swarm ticks on the boss. Insect Swarm has a duration of 15 seconds talented and a GCD of 1.3476.

Wrath casts per IS: (15 - 1.3476) / 1.2433 = 10.98; rounded up to 11

So this means that on average our rotation will consist of 1 Insect Swarm cast, 10 Wrath casts with Imp IS, and 1 Wrath cast without Imp IS. This results in a rotation DPS of :

Rotation DPS = (IS Dam + W Dam + (W IS Dam * 10)) / (IS GCD + (W Cast Time * 11))
Rotation DPS = (4,220 + 3,083 + (3,153 * 10)) / ( 1.3476 + (1.2433* 11))
Rotation DPS = 38,833/ 15.0239 = 2,584.74

Rotation DPM = 38,833/ (304 + (273 * 11)) = 11.74

Moonfire, Insect Swarm, Wrath * X:
How many Wraths can we cast while Insect Swarm and Moonfire ticks on the boss. Both DoTs hav a duration of 15 seconds talented. Insect Swarm's GCD is 1.3476, while Moonfire has an average GCD of 1.2225.
Wrath casts per Rotation: (15 - 1.3476 - 1.2225) / 1.2433 = 9.99; rounded up to 10

So this means that on average our rotation will consist of 1 Insect Swarm cast, 1 Moonfire cast, 9 Wrath casts with Imp IS, and 1 Wrath cast without Imp IS. This results in a rotation DPS of :

Rotation DPS = (MF Dam + IS Dam + W Dam + (W IS Dam * 9)) / (MF GCD + IS GCD + (W Cast Time * 10))
Rotation DPS = (5,733 + 4,220 + 3,083 + (3,153 * 9)) / ( 1.2225 + 1.3476 + (1.2433* 10))
Rotation DPS = 41,413 / 15.0031 = 2,760.30

Rotation DPM = 41,413 / (304 + 597 + (273 * 10)) = 11.41

The Wrath rotations are fairly even. The the IS, MF, W rotation has a 3.73% DPS advantage, but the IS, W rotation has a 5.96% DPM advantage. Which you choose will depend on your current needs, but if you need more mana efficiency then your probably not going to use a Wrath rotation. Therefore, it is my suggestion that an IS, MF, W*x rotation be your primary Wrath rotation in early raiding.

Starfire Rotation vs Wrath Rotation:
Which rotation is better really depends on the fight. The Starfire rotation is clearly better in terms of both DPS and DPM. However, this only holds true if you can keep appling Moonfire ticks with each Starfire cast and there is limited spell pushback.

The Starfire Rotation is best for long "tank and spank" type fights that have limited aggro dumps and limited movement. This rotation shine's when you can sustain consistant and focused DPS. The perfect fight for this rotation is one like Tidewalker, where you can sit there and build up as many ticks as possible with out worring about pulling aggro after a threat wipe.

A Wrath Rotation is best for the more highly variable fights like Leo. The Wrath rotation shines when you have to start and stop DPS frequently because it doesn't require the synergy between glyphs to provide good DPS. Also, a Wrath rotation is more predictable because you manage when your DoTs end to help you avoid pulling aggro. If you used a Starfire rotation in this situation you would lose a good chunk of the mana efficency because you have to reapply Moonfire frequently.

Ultimately you want to maximize your use of the Starfire rotation without pulling aggro or endangering the raid. There are plenty of situations where one rotation might be good for one phase but bad for the second.

Take Supremus for example. Phase one is great for Starfire, because you can build up Moonfire ticks to DPS during the Kite phase. Wrath is better for phase two because of the shorter cast time and you don't want to extend the Moonfire DoT into the aggro dump.

You can also use more then one rotation in a single phase. Take phase two of the Leo fight in SSC. You have a minute while he is in demon form. You could build up your Moonfire duration using your Starfire rotation until the duration of Moonfire is a little less then the time left in the phase. Then you switch over to your Wrath rotation to let the moonfire tick off.

TL;DR Version:
This is a lot of math and words so I want to summarize it into a more digestable format.

MF, IS, SF*x Rotation
Good: The Best rotation when managable. Great for long "tank and spank" fights that allow for continous and focused DPS.
Bad: For choppy fights with frequent aggro dumps that require you to frequently reapply Moonfire.

MF, IS, W*x Rotation
Good: For choppy fights that require greater control over your personal DPS.
Bad: For long consistent fights that require a greater level of mana efficnecy.

WotLK: What Spell Do I Use? - The Basics

This is the first part in a three part series looking at what spells moonkin should use for WotLK Raiding. Part one looks at the basic math of our four main DPS spells. Part two will look at what spell rotations we should use and when. Part three on Eclipse is cancelled for now.

UPDATE: The numbers have been updated to include the new base values.

With the expansion coming a lot of the conventional wisdom regarding moonkin is up in the air. If you have read my blog or the moonkin forums you know that several people are questioning if Starfire will still be our primary raid spell. In this post I hope to look at our 4 primary DPS spells and how they are changing. In a second post I will also look at what sort of rotations we are going to use in the expantion.

Quick Note: A couple of people have done math similar to this. I haven't reviewed it all but it is something you might one to look at it. Murmur's compares Moonkin DPS to Mage DPS here on the WoW forums. And Gray Matter reader Erdluf, looks at the DPS of individual talents here on the Moonkin Respository. These were posted a little while ago so some of the values may have changed, but it is good work by both of them that should be recognized.

Talent Build / Buffs:
I have used this Talent Build to calculate the numbers. I am not suggesting that we raid with this build. I have chosen it because it maximizes DPS buffs and I expect blizzard to do something about our bloat.

Note: This may be a mistake but I'm going to assume that you've read my other Verses posts or know a decent amount about moonkin builds. Therefore, I am not going to list every talent that will impact the math. I am just highlighting the newer ones and the ones that have a greater impact.

Spell Damage Buffs:
Genesis - Increases the damage and healing done by your periodic damage and healing effects by 5%.
Improved Moonfire - Increases the damage and critical strike chance of your Moonfire spell by 10%.
Moonfury - Increases the damage done by your Starfire, Moonfire and Wrath spells by 10%.
Wrath of Cenarius - Your Starfire spell gains an additional 20% and your Wrath gains an additional 10% of your bonus damage effects.
Earth and Moon - Your Wrath and Starfire spells have a 100% chance to apply the Earth and Moon effect, which increases Arcane, Fire, Frost, Nature and Shadow damage taken by 13% for 12 sec. Also increases your spell damage by 5%.
Master Shapeshifter - Moonkin Form - Increases spell damage by 4%.

Glyphs:
Glyph of Moonfire - Increases the periodic damage of your Moonfire ability by 75%, but initial damage is decreased by 90%.
Glyph of Starfire - Your Starfire ability increases the duration of your Moonfire effect on the target by 3 sec.
Glyph of Insect Swarm - Increases the damage of your Insect Swarm ability by 30%, but it no longer affects your victim's chance to hit.
Glyph of Wrath - Increases the chance you'll resist spell interruption when casting your Wrath spell by 50%.

Assumptions:
1. Base Mana for a level 80 Druid is 3796 as found on WoWWiki.

2. I have build a hipothetical druid entirely geared out of Naxx 10. I used both Cloth and Leather items. The math is build around this charicter. Fully buffed he has 17,776 mana, 30% Crit w/ talents, 11.31% haste, 1800 Spell Power, and is Hit capped.

3. I assume there is no spell push back. This is biased agains Wrath, but I don't think I have a good way to estimate it at the moment.

Mana Costs:
In WotLK mana costs for spells are a percentage of a toons Base Mana pool. So, at level 80 a moonkins mana costs start at: Starfire = 607, Wrath = 417, Moonfire =797, Insect Swarm = 303.

With thenew Mana on crit mechanic we can assume some mana saving based upon crit rate. Given my hipothetical moonkin each crit will return 355 mana. Therefore each Wrath and Starfire cast will return 107 mana on average and each Moonfire cast will return 128 mana on average.

Moonglow will also reduce the mana costs by 9% for Starfire, Wrath and Moonfire.

With these modifications in mind we can assume the mana cost of each spell is: Starfire = 446, Wrath = 273, Moonfire = 597, Insect Swarm = 303.

Moonfire:
Here is the basic math for Moonfire's DPS.

DD Damage = (((DD Base + (Spell Power * 0.1487)) * (1 + Crit₁)) * (1 + (Imp MF + MF + EnM(group) + MSS + EnM(self))))

DoT Damage = ((DoT Base + (Spell Power * 0.5224)) * 1.25) * (1 + (Imp MF + MF + EnM(group) + MSS + EnM(self) + Genesis))

DPS = (DD Damage + DoT Damage) / 15

For the hypothetical moonkin this equiates to:

DD Damage = ((441+ (1800* 0.1487)) * (1 + 0.36)) * (1 + 0.1+ 0.1 + 0.13 + 0.04 + 0.05)
DD Damage = (709 * 1.36) * 1.42 = 1,369

DoT Damage = ((800+ (1800 * 0.5224)) * 1.25) * (1 + 0.1+ 0.1 + 0.13 + 0.04 + 0.05 + 0.05)
DoT Damage = (1740 * 1.25) * 1.47 = 3,198

DPS = (1,369+ 3,198) / 15 = 304.67

Now lets look to see what happens if we use the Glyph of Moonfire. As state above it reduces the Direct Damage potion of the spell by 90% but increases the DoT by 75%.

DPS = ((DD Damage * 0.1) + (DoT Damage * 1.75)) / 15
DPS = ((1,369* 0.1) + (3,198 * 1.75)) / 15
DPS = (137 + 5596) / 15 = 382.23

The DPM for a Glyphed Moonfire is:

DPM = (137 + 5596) / 597 = 9.60

Due to the Glyph of Starfire we need to figure out what Moonfire's DoT damage is per tick. I will assume that the Moonfire Glyph is active since it is clearly a DPS increase.

Damage per Tick = 5596 / 5 = 1,119

1: This crit rate is 0.06 higher then the crit rate listed in the assumptions. This is due to Moonfire getting 10% crit from talents instead of 4% like Starfire and Wrath.

Starfire:
Here is the basic math for Starfire's DPS.

DPS = (((Base + (Spell Power * 1.2))*(1 + (MF + EnM(group) + MSS + EnM(self))))*(1 + Crit)) / ((3-(0.5*Crit))/(1+Haste))>

For my hypothetical moonkin this equates to:

DPS = (((1,120 + (1,800 * 1.2))*(1 + 0.1 + 0.13 + 0.04 + 0.05)))*(1 + 0.3)) / ((3 - (0.5 * 0.3))/ (1 + 0.1131))
DPS = (3,280* 1.32)*1.3 / (2.85 / 1.1131)
DPS = 5,628 / 2.5604 = 2,198.28

This results in a Damage per Mana of:

DPM = (5,628 / 446) = 12.62

As stated above the Glyph of Starfire increases the duration of a ticking Moonfire by 3 seconds. It basically adds one more tick. Here is how that affects Starfire's DPS and DPM. I will assume that the Moonfire Glyphed also.

Glyphed DPS = Starfire DPS + (Moonfire Tick / 3)
Glyphed DPS = 2,198.28 + (1,119/ 3) = 2,571.28

Wrath:
Here is the basic math for Wrath's DPS.

DPS = (((Base + (Spell Power * 0.67))*(1 + (MF + EnM(group) + MSS + EnM(self))))*(1 + Crit)) / ((1.5/(1+Haste))*(1 - Crit) + Crit)

For my hypothetical moonkin this equates to:

DPS = (((588 + (1800 * 0.67))*(1 + 0.1 + 0.13 + 0.04 + 0.05)))*(1 + 0.3)) / ((1.5/(1+0.1131))*(1 - Crit) + Crit)
DPS = (1,794* 1.32)*1.3 / (1.3476*0.7) + 0.3
DPS = 3,079 / 1.2433 = 2,476.07

This results in a Damage per Mana of:

DPM = (3,079 / 273) = 11.28

Insect Swarm:
Here is the basic math for Insect Swarm DPS.

DPS = ((Base + (Spell Power * 0.76)) * (1 + EnM(group) + MSS + EnM(self) + Genesis) * 1.25) / 15

For my hypothetical moonkin this equates to:

DPS = ((1,290 + (1800 * 0.76)) * (1 + 0.13 + 0.04 + 0.05 + 0.05) * 1.25) / 15
DPS = (2,658 * 1.27 * 1.25) / 15 = 281.30

Using the the Insect Swarm Glyph depends on your raid. In will increase your personal DPS, but it eliminates the 5% avoidence associated with the spell. Using this glyph depends on the need for the extra avoidence and if a hunter is using Scorpid Sting.

Glyphed DPS = 281.30 * 1.30 = 365.70

This results in a Damage per Mana of:

DPM = (2,658 * 1.27 * 1.25) / 303 = 13.93

Glyphed DPM = ((2,658 * 1.27 * 1.25) * 1.3) / 303 = 18.10

Conclustions:
1. If you ever plan on using Moonfire in a Raid you should have the Moonfire Glyph. We all know that Moonfire spam is bad 99.99% of the time, so this glyph improves your DPS 99.99% of the time.

2. Without glyphs the relationship between Starfire and Wrath has normalized, where Wrath has a 13% DPS advantage and Starfire has a 12% DPM advantage. After you add the Glyph's Starfire becomes a clear favorite for fights with low spell push back. In such a situation, Starfire has a 3.7% DPS advantage and a 34% DPM advantage

3. Insect Swarm is a much improved spell. It may not scale as well as our other spells but it scales much better then it used to.

Final Note:
I feel like I should note that the Crit rate I have used in these calculations is probably a little conservative. I came up with the number by adding the crit from Crit Rating, Int, Talents, and Imp Scorch togeather and scaled it back a little. To be specific my hypothetical moonkin got the following crit values from stats: Crit rating - 7.17%, Int - 5.62%, Talents - 9%, Imp Scorch - 10%. If you combine these you get a 31.78% crit rate.

Notice that this calculation excludes Imp FF or a Base Crit rate that may or may not exist. It is also created using the bear minimum of raid quality gear. This number should increase significantly as the quality of gear increases from T8 and T9 instances.

I haven't detailed the math here but I have plugged higher crit rates into my model to see how it would affect the results. It shows that Crit rating heavily favors Wrath in both DPS and DPM. Wrath receives more DPS from crit then Starfire because it has a higher base level of DPS. Wrath also becomes more Mana efficent due to the Mana on Crit and having a shorter cast time then Starfire.

So, don't be surprised, if we start saying don't use Starfire at higher levels of raiding.

I will revaluate these numbers after WotLK goes live and we have some real numbers to play wit.

WotLK Beta Update - Build 8962

Blizzard pushed through another beta build last night and it includes several changes to the Balance tree that I think you will be interested in.

* Earth and Moon (Tier 10) changed so your Wrath and Starfire spells have a 100% chance to apply the Earth and Moon effect. It now also increases your spell damage by 1/2/3/4/5%. (Previously had a 20/40/60/80/100% chance to apply the Earth and Moon Effect) Buff Duration also decreased to 15 seconds.
* Eclipse (Tier 9) changed so when you critically hit with Starfire, you have a 33/66/100% chance of increasing damage done by Wrath by 10%. (Previously 20/40/60% chance)
* Improved Moonkin Aura (Tier 7) gives 3% spell haste for all ranks and now you gain 5/10/15% of your spirit as additional spell damage.
* Improved Faerie Fire (Tier 7) increases your critical strike chance against targets afflicted with Faerie Fire by 1/2/3%.
* Nature's Splendor (Tier 3) changed to - When you cast Moonfire, Insect Swarm, Rejuvenation, Regrowth or Lifebloom you have a 33/66/100% chance to increase it's duration by 3 sec.

The Good:
This is definitely an improvement over the old build. Earth and Moon and Imp Moonkin Aura gained buffs that will increase Moonkin DPS.

The best change is to Imp Moonkin Aura for a couple of reason. This is a talent we were going to pick up in the old build, so this is a free buff. Also, anything that boosts our damage in relation to spirit is great because we are going to be seeing a lot of spirit on our gear. This makes up for the nerf to Lunar Guidance a little bit. A lot of people on the forums had been asking to get Crit rating, but I think most will be happy with this also.

Beyond that we have a definite reason to not only pick up Earth and Moon but put 5 points in it for a little additional scaling.

The Bad:
The biggest issue is still bloat. I have seen no indication that any talent costs have been reduced and these talent changes make just increase the number of desirable talents. In the last build I wouldn't have put only 3 points in E&M, and none in Eclipse or Imp Faerie Fire. So, Moonkin now have 8 more places to put talent points we don't have.

This is an issue Moonkin have been stressing since the first alpha build, and with each build it seems to just get worse. I know Blizzard has said they are going to take a look at it and probably shave off a couple of points here or there, but that was several weeks and several builds ago. Its time for them to do something about it. In my current mock raid build, I have 3 points left with 5 viable talents that have 12 possible talent points, And that excludes Imp FF. I'm not saying I should get all 5 talents, but forcing me to drop 3 or 4 of them isn't reasonable either.

Improved Faerie Fire was the least improved in this build. The increased crit is nice, but it does not address the core issue of the talent. The duration of the talent is to short and and it is much easier for another class to apply. Even with the additional crit, Imp Faerie Fire will still be a DPS loss for Moonkin. According to my quick math a rotation SF rotation that included Imp FF would have 1.1% less DPS then an SF rotation that did not include Imp FF. (This assumes the 3% hit is provided by Misery.)

The problem is the duration. Since it is only 40 seconds we cant get enough SF or Wrath casts off to let the Crit compensate for GCD loss let alone improve our DPS. Blizzard needs to increase Faerie Fires Duration or give us some way to refresh it without switching from our damage rotation. As is, no should moonkin will pick up this talent as long as there is an Shadow Priest in raid.

The Unknown:
I think the Jury is still out on Eclipse. The reduction in cooldown and reduced randomness are definite improvements. However, the buff's duration was cut in half to 15 seconds. Also, the question of how Wrath and Starfire relate is still unanswered. Is there enough of a contrast to warrant switching spells?

My Mock Raid Build:
As I mentioned before I have created a new Mock level 80 raid build. Here is the link.

As you can see I still have 3 points that I am unsure how to spend. Here are the choices:

Dreamstate (3 pts) - A lot has been done to improve our mana situation, but with potion sickness I am unsure if this is an expendable talent. If I have mana issues I may be forced to put the points here.

Owlkin Frenzy (3 pts) - This is obviously a great PvP talent, but has some potential in PvE as well. If WotLK raids are designed like BT and SWP with a lot of raid wide damage, the the push back resistance and extra damage will be very helpful.

Eclipse (3 pts) - As I said before, I am very up in the air on this talent. I don't know if it has been improved or not. I need to sit down and do some math to figure it out.

Force of Nature (1 pts) - I love the trees, but the are hardly an ideal raid talent. In WotLK they will be a little more controllable, but they will still be weak and situationally useful. On top of that I have never gotten really proficient at casting the spell. I always seem to get a little out of range. The plus side is they can do significant damage that is both threat free and mana efficient if used correctly.

Gale Winds (2 pts) - I would love to pick up this talent. I hate getting killed by locks and mages on the damage meters during AoE pulls. In Hyjal, Holly Paladins can do similar damage to what I can do because the run in and Consecrate. The problem is we don't know how important AoE is going to be in WotLK. Right now I file this talent under nice but situational.

Conclusion:
This is a nice start, because there are some very nice changes here. I think most moonkin though would agree with me and say that a few more changes are needed. Something needs to be done about bloat, and Imp Faerie Fire needs to be tweaked. Eclipse may need to be tweaked also, but I will wait until I have done the math to say for sure one way or the other.

Let me know what you think. How would you design a raid build with these changes? How does this change your outlook on the tree if at all?

Edit: I saw the change in Eclipse's duration and edited some of my comments.