Patch Notes: Starsurge Nerf?

I assume most of you have seen the 4.1 PTR patch notes that came out on Tuesday and saw this little gem.

Starsurge damage has been reduced by 20%.

I was pretty surprised by this note, and judging from the email I've gotten it seems like many of you were also. I've done some rough calculations using SimulationCraft, WrathCalcs and World of Logs Data, and I estimate this change to be about a 3% decrease to Moonkin DPS. To say the least this sucks, but all nerfs suck. The question that I would like answered now is: Why?

Overpowered DPS:

When questioning a nerf the first consideration should always be if the class or spec is over powered. Personally, I haven't felt overpowered, but I have had a bit of a rough time raiding since the release of Cataclysm. Therefore, I might not have the best perspective. However, I also haven't heard any QQ about Moonkin DPS from other classes. So, my gut reaction is that Moonkin are not overpowered, but lets look at some numbers to see if we can see a different story.

SimulationCraft: The first place I wanted to look was SimulationCraft. I wanted to see how Moonkin ranked against the other caster specs. I ran simulations for each of the main caster specs using the BiS profiles at a 372 gear level provided by SimulationCraft.

SimulationCraft	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
Gear 372 ilvl	26,580	26,187	27,951	27,276	28,307

I realize that the profiles I used are not necessarily like comparing apples to apples, but I assume that the SimulationCraft coders know what they are doing and that these are reasonable. With that in mind I don't see a case Moonkin being overpowered in these numbers. All 5 specs are relatively close together and the Balance spec is towards the bottom of the pack.

World of Logs: SimulationCraft is great in theory, but doesn't really represent what happens when a human is pushing the buttons. So lets take a look at some WoL info.

At the bottom of this post, I've listed some ranking info from World of Logs. I've included the #1 and #200 ranked parse of each spec for every 25man Normal mode fight available in T11 raiding. I pulled the data on 03/03/11.

For the record, I fully understand that this data does not accurately represent the WoW playing population as a whole. This data is skewed by favorable RNG, and represents a tiny portion of the population. My guess is that Blizzard has much better data and sees a more complete picture, but this is the only thing that is available to me.

The results varied significantly depending on the fight. Moonkin DPS was close to the top on several fights, but was towards the bottom on others. Valiona & Theralion was the only fight I saw where significantly ahead of other classes on a consistent basis and Shadow Priests are right there with us.

DPS Conclusions: Looking at this data it's obvious Moonkin aren't weak, but I think it would be hard to argue that we are systematically better then the other classes. At the very least I don't think it warns a 3% nerf.

While Moonkin come out a head on some fights, we fall behind on others. It was my understanding Blizzard expected that some fights would be better for some classes, and that is ok. Therefore, I don't see a problem with how the DPS is currently distributed, because it's not consistent or overwhelming.

In my opinion Moonkin are not overpowered, and I would be surprised if that is the reason behind the nerf.

Why Starsurge?:

I also keep asking myself, why nerf Starsurge? If they thought Moonkin were to high, then Moonfury is a much better tool then Starsurge. They've already nerfed moonkin with it once, and have shown that they don't have a problem going below the current level of 10%. Since they focused on a single spell that makes me think there is a specific problem they are trying to solve rather then a general issue like to much DPS.

To Much Synergy: Since I only play PvE, I of course start to think of reasons why would Starsurge be a problem in PvE. The only thing I could think of is that they underestimated the amount of Synergy there would be between DoTs, Shooting Stars, and Starsurge. Some of the best WoL parses I looked at were moonkin maintaining DoTs on multiple targets and getting an large number of Shooting Stars procs.

It's possible that Blizzard might want to calm that relationship down, but I have a hard time believing that. Even if there is more synergy between those abilities then Blizzard expected, I don't think it's resulted in a DPS imbalance. Then I remembered, the main reason why we can never have nice things.

PvP Burst: To much Synergy might be the right answer, but I applied it to the wrong area of play. Blizzard has been trying to limit Burst DPS in PvP for years. They don't want players to go from full to dead in a very short period of time. With Starsurge and Shooting Stars a moonkin can put out a lot of DPS in a every short period of time with a little help from RNG.

As any many of you know I don't PvP, so I don't know if this is really happening in game, but it sounds possible. If I had to guess, I would say Starsurge is getting nerfed because Blizzard believes it's too powerful in PvP.

TL-DR:

Getting nerfed sucks, and I think most of us were surprised by the Starsurge nerf when we saw it. After looking at the DPS data that is available to players I highly doubt that Moonkin are over powered and need to be brought down for pure DPS reasons. Even if that was the case I doubt Blizzard would do so by nerfing Starsurge. Moonfury is a much better tool to raise or lower DPS if that type of action is needed.

The reason, Starsurge is getting nerfed probably has more to do with the spell itself rather then the overall DPS output of Moonkin. The fact of the matter is, Starsurge can unload a lot of DPS in a very short period of time with a little good luck from Shooting Stars. Chances are Starsurge is being nerfed for PvP reasons rather then PvE reasons. With that, there is a little hope. The patch is still in the early stages, and there is plenty of time for Blizzard to buff us in other areas to make up for the nerf.


World of Logs Data:

Magmaw	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	38,895	41,954	35,484	33,087	42,413
Low	29,190	29,290	29,148	26,849	29,345









Omnotron	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	37,232	44,795	38,238	30,271	32,479
Low	27,610	29,945	28,848	23,566	25,548









Chimaeron	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	24,443	24,281	23,804	23,994	23,458
Low	19,023	19,973	20,132	18,730	19,998









Maloriak	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	29,890	32,506	29,421	25,144	27,882
Low	24,849	25,728	24,062	21,853	23,937









Atramedes	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	26,249	24,899	25,230	23,971	25,495
Low	20,374	20,414	21,575	19,815	21,170









Nefarian	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	28,186	26,109	26,890	24,280	25,411
Low	22,180	20,780	23,362	19,811	22,292









Halfus	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	63,666	76,078	63,541	57,206	58,956
Low	45,979	54,027	49,132	42,288	45,325









V&T	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	36,023	30,456	36,457	30,003	32,476
Low	26,427	23,049	27,009	21,353	25,360









Twilight Council	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	28,515	24,259	24,944	22,242	28,530
Low	21,862	18,832	20,673	16,349	19,515









Cho'gall	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	38,610	43,283	27,791	28,221	33,175
Low	22,082	21,359	22,786	19,463	20,967









Conclave	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	24,835	26,194	23,864	22,991	24,751
Low	17,915	18,258	18,325	15,896	18,358









Al'Akir	Balance	Fire	Shadow	Elemental	Destruction
High	27,877	26,730	29,818	25,929	26,247
Low	20,299	20,105	22,033	17,270	20,110

Fun W/ SimulationCraft: WotLK Rotations

With Cataclysm right around the corner some of you maybe wondering why I'm writing about a WotLK rotation when we know everything is going to change. I agree. It seems silly, but I was recently challenged on the rotation I've been using and that prompted me to do some more research. In the off chance that some of you still care about WotLK, I thought I would post my results and how to do the tests for yourself.

The Theory:

If you are a reader of the Moonkin Repository you may remember a post that RandomSmo made a month and a half ago regarding when is the best time to cast Moonfire and Insect Swarm. The question he asked was: Is it better to cast the DoTs outside of Eclipse or is it better to only cast Moonfire at the beginning of Lunar Eclipse and only cast Insect Swarm at the beginning of Solar Eclipse?

The theory behind the question is that moonkin DPS is driven by Eclipse uptime. Therefore you want to do everything possible to maximize the uptime of Eclipse. Casting a DoT while Eclipse is down just delays procing the next Eclipse, and therefore reduces the uptime of Eclipse.

I agree that the theory is very counterintuitive. If moonkin DPS is so driven by Eclipse then why cast something that is not affected by Eclipse?

There are a couple of possible reasons. First, in the case of Moonfire casting a DoT doesn't necessarily prevent a Starfire cast from getting Eclipse. If you have 1.5 seconds left on Eclipse there is no way that Starfire will benefit from that remaining buff. It would have been better to have Moonfire ticking the entire duration and gotten the same number of Eclipsed Starfires. Second, in the case of Insect Swarm there were synergies to consider. Wrath does 3% more damage when Insect Swarm is on the mob. So, it is possible that if you combine the 3% buff with the added uptime of Insect Swarm that you would make up for the lost Eclipsed Wrath.

Admittedly there were some problems with the simulations RandomSmo ran. However, when I ran some quick tests in July correcting for his mistakes I got smaller, but similar results. I then accepted the results, but as I said before was recently challenged regarding some of the strategies I was using. With that I desided I would redo the tests to see if the results had changed.

What SimulationCraft Says:
All simulations were run using Graylo with full raid buffs, as a 5 minute fight, and with 10,000 iterations.

A quick look at Starfall and the default set up: I ran 17 different rotations through SimulationCraft. In those tests I was primarily changing when and how DoTs were applied, but I do want to make a quick comment about the default set up for SimulationCraft.

If you import your toon right into SimulationCraft the default rotation assumes that you don't cast Starfall during Eclipse. When I ran Graylo using the default rotation I had a DPS value of 12,304. When I had it cast Starfall when ever it was off cooldown I had a DPS value of 12,351. This indicates that it is better not to delay casting Starfall to cast it out side of Eclipse. However, I would like to present a couple of reminders first.

First, the SimulationCraft tests I ran assumed a Patchwerk style fight, and 7 out of 12 ICC bosses have specific add phases where it is better to use Starfall. Second, big delays over long fights will add up quickly. If you delay Starfall 3 or 4 times for 10 seconds or more over a long fight you've probably lost a Starfall cast in that fight. Shorter delays and delays on shorter fights will have less of an impact.

Here is the general rule I would use. On a Patchwerk style fight try not to delay Starfall too much, but feel free to delay it a few seconds if it becomes available at the end of an Eclipse buff.

When is the best time to cast DoTs?
In all of the simulations below I assume that Starfall is cast when it is available.

These are some of the measures I used when I asked some similar questions last December.

Condition	DPS
Never Skip	12,298
Skip on Opposite	12,419
Skip Always	12,426

With "Never Skip" the tests refreshed the DoTs when ever they were down. Even if Eclipse is up with only a few seconds left. With "Skip on Opposite" DoTs were only refreshed during Eclipse if they take advantage of Improved Insect Swarm. Therefore, if Lunar Eclipse is up you would refresh Moonfire but not Insect Swarm. With "Skip Always" the tests skip both DoTs if either Eclipse buff is up.

If you remember that post you can see that the results are a bit different this time around. In December there was an obvious advantage to trying to keep a 100% uptime on DoTs. Now our DoTs are relatively week and it is better in some cases skip them in favor of Eclipse buffed nukes.

Smo's Theory: So how does RandomSmo's theory stack up against these baseline values?

Condition	DPS
Only at Start of Same Eclipse	12,320

When tested against my toon, Smo's theory comes about 106 DPS behind the Skip Always strategy above. That means the Skip All Strategy provides about 0.86% more damage. That isn't a huge difference but it is clear to me that it is an inferior strategy.

Can we improve on the Skip Always Strategy? Now that it is clear that Smo's theory is an inferior strategy, the question is: Can the Skip Always strategy be improved upon? As I said before I ran about 17 different rotations through the simulator. Here are the most telling results.

Condition	DPS
Cast Either DoT if Eclipse is Down or has more then 4 sec remaining.	12,338
Cast MF for 100% Uptime, Cast IS only when Eclipse is down.	12,392
Cast IS for 100% Uptime, Cast MF only when Eclipse is down.	12,335
Cast DoT if Own Eclipse has more then 4 sec remaining or if Eclipse is down	12,443
Cast MF if Lunar Eclipse has more then 4 sec remaining or if Eclipse is down, Cast IS if Eclipse is down	12,438
Cast IS if Solar Eclipse has more then 4 sec remaining or if Eclipse is down, Cast MF if Eclipse is down	12,427

Judging from these results there doesn't appear to be a way to significantly improve on the Skip Always Strategy. There do appear to be some slight improvements when casting Moonfire at the beginning of Lunar Eclipse, but these differences probably fall within the margin of error and are very slight even if they don't.

TL-DR:

In my most recent testing Smo's theory of casting DoTs only at the beginning of Eclipse does not appear to be beneficial. I was able to get noticeably better results from SimulationCraft using a strategy where you always skip DoTs during Eclipse. SimulationCraft did show slightly improved results using a strategy that would cast Moonfire at the start of Lunar Eclipse, but the results probably fall within the margin of error.

For Starfall, SimulationCraft defaults it to only be cast when Eclipse is down. However, I got better results from SimulatonCraft if Starfall was cast when it was off cooldown. However, I would be careful when applying these results. It is probably advantageous to make small delays in casting Starfall during shorter fights because you are unlikely to reduce the number of Starfalls you will get in the encounter. Making longer delays, or delays during longer fights is more risky because you risk losing a Starfall cast during an attempt.

Do It Yourself: If you would like to run this analysis for yourself. Here is how you do it.

Go download SimulationCraft from here. The Import tab will allow you to download your toon from the Armory, Rawr, or WoWhead if you have a profile set up there.

The Default Setting for Moonkin in SimulationCraft does not cast Insect Swarm unless you are moving. So for the first simulation you run you will want to add a line for Insect Swarm below the line for Moonfire. For every test after that just replace the Moonfire and Insect Swarm lines with the lines I provide below.

For 100% DoT uptime (Never Skip Strat), replace the lines with:

actions+=/moonfire,if=!ticking
actions+=/insect_swarm,if=!ticking

For the Skip Always Strat, replace the lines with:

actions+=/moonfire,if=!ticking&!eclipse
actions+=/insect_swarm,if=!ticking&!eclipse

For the Skip on Opposite Strat, replace the lines with:

actions+=/moonfire,if=!ticking&(buff.solar_eclipse.down)
actions+=/insect_swarm,if=!ticking&(buff.lunar_eclipse.down)

To run Smo's Theory, replace the lines with:

actions+=/moonfire,if=!ticking&(buff.lunar_eclipse.react)&buff.lunar_eclipse.remains>10
actions+=/insect_swarm,if=!ticking&(buff.solar_eclipse.react)&buff.solar_eclipse.remains>10

For the Cast DoT if Own Eclipse has more then 4 sec remaining or if Eclipse is down Strat:

actions+=/moonfire,if=!ticking&(buff.lunar_eclipse.down|buff.lunar_eclipse.remains>4)&(buff.solar_eclipse.down)
actions+=/insect_swarm,if=!ticking&(buff.lunar_eclipse.down)&(buff.solar_eclipse.down|buff.solar_eclipse.remains>4)

From here you can mix and match the different bits of code to get the other results I had. One thing to remember is that this is a simulator so you may not get the same results each time you run it.

Fun w/ SimulationCraft: Moonkin Trinkets

The Question: What are the best Trinkets for Moonkin?

This is a fairly common question I see asked around the internet. Unfortunately most trinkets behave in unusual ways that make them difficult to evaluate using simple math and spreadsheets. On top of that the typically provide a large quantity of a single stat and therefore can sckew the results of a typical valueation.

So, what's the answer? Throw it in SimulationCraft and see what it says.

My Theory:

Honestly , I don't have much of a theory on this one. I've made several statements about the valuation of trinkets over the past few months and they seem to change with each statement. You may remember back to my first ICC gear list I said the two Reign Trinkets would remain BiS. Well I am now sure that I was wrong then.

I was wrong because I didn't take into account the amount of Spell Power I would be picking up by upgrading to T10 level gear. That dramatically helps Crit and Haste but has little impact on the proc value of either Reign trinket. Don't get me wrong. Both Reign trinkets are still very good trinkets in ICC, but I think the ICC trinkets are giving them a little more competetion then I first expected.

What SimulationCraft Says:

As usual, I used myself as the example. First, I assumed two base level trinkets: [Illustration of the Dragon Soul] and the normal [Reign of the Unliving]. I realize that not everyone has had luck gaining these trinkets, but Sarth and ToC are very pug able. Therefore I don't think they are out of the realm of possibility to be concidered baseline trinkets.

After I established a base level of DPS I started to exchange the IotDS for the DPS trinkets available from ICC10 and ICC25. In the table below are all the DPS values I got from SimulationCraft for each trinket.

Trinket	DPS
Dislodged Foreign Object (H)	11,216
Reign of the Unliving	11,210
Phylactery of the Nameless Lich (H)	11,201
Phylactery of the Nameless Lich	11,131
Dislodged Foreign Object	11,123
Muradin's Spyglass (H)	11,099
Muradin's Spyglass	11,044
Base	10,862

As you can see the Heroic 25man trinkets all did very well for me. Even the Heroic version of Reign of the Unliving was comparable to Heroic DFO and Heroic PotNL. I am a little surprised with how low both Spyglass trinkets were. I thought the heroic version would at least be a little higher upPlease, do not take this as a definitive list of which trinkets are better then the others. If I ran this in a month with different gear it might be different. I highly suggest that you try running theses through SimulationCraft for your own toon.

Do It Yourself:If you don't have it already, you can download SimulationCraft from here.

After you have it downloaded you want to make sure it is set up correctly for you to import your toon, and assume all of the correct buffs. Click the Options tab at the top. You should see several more tabs appear below it. Click the Global's tab and make sure it is selecting the lates patch and make sure that the Armory region is set to your region. Then, if you are with the Alliance, go to the Buff tab and make sure Heroic Presence is checked.

From here it is fairly easy import your toon. Go to the Import tab and search for your toon on the armory and hit the import button. You can also import your toon from WoWhead or Rawr if you use either of them. After you click the Import button it will populate the Simulate tab.

Here is where it gets manual. In the middle of the import your gear will be listed. Towards the bottom of your gear there will be two lines for Trinket1 and Trinket two. These are the lines you want to replace to evaluate new trinkets. Here are the lines for the trinkets I used in the post:

trinket1=illustration_of_the_dragon_soul,equip=onspellcast_20sp_10stack_10dur
trinket1=muradins_spyglass,stats=152crit,equip=onspelldamage_20sp_10stack_10dur
trinket1=muradins_spyglass,stats=131crit,equip=onspelldamage_18sp_10stack_10dur
trinket1=phylactery_of_the_nameless_lich,stats=172crit,equip=onspelltickdamage_1032sp_30%_20dur_90cd
trinket1=phylactery_of_the_nameless_lich,stats=152crit,equip=onspelltickdamage_918sp_30%_20dur_90cd
trinket1=reign_of_the_unliving,stats=168sp,equip=onspelldirectcrit_2117fire_3stack_2.0cd
trinket2=reign_of_the_unliving,stats=150sp,equip=onspelldirectcrit_1882fire_3stack_2.0cd
trinket1=dislodged_foreign_object,stats=170haste,equip=onspellcast_121sp_10stack_10%_20dur_45cd_2tick
trinket1=dislodged_foreign_object,stats=155haste,equip=onspellcast_105sp_10stack_10%_20dur_45cd_2tick

If you are familure with WoWhead or Rawr it is much easier to change the trinkets with those tools and reimport the file.

Patch 3.3.3: What Now? A look at Glyphs and Rotations.

If you pay attention to the Moonkin related forum threads and websites you have probably noticed quite a bit of debate going on for the past couple of weeks. As you probably remember, with the release of patch 3.3.3, Starfall is getting a very significant buff. This change not only impacts our DPS, but it has also raised a lot of questions about which Glyphs to use, and which spells to cast. In this post I hope to answer some of the questions related to moonkin DPS in a post 3.3.3 world.

Glyphs:

Glyph of Starfall - It may sound strange to some of you, but Glyph of Starfall is the only glyph sure to be use by most Moonkin raiders after 3.3.3. The reason is fairly simple. Before the changes Starfall the Glyph of Starfall wasn't fair behind the Glyph of Insect Swarm. In fact, they were close enough that quite a few moonkin advocated using the Glyph of Starfall, so that Insect Swarm would still provide the hit debuff on the boss despite the small DPS loss.

Since Starfall is getting such a huge buff, being able to cast Starfall 50% more often is an obvious a significant bonus as well. There may be a few situations where the Starfall cooldown doesn't line up well with fight mechanics thus making another Glyph a bigger DPS increase, but those situations will be the exception.

Glyph of Focus - This glyph is actually getting a bit of a nerf in patch 3.3.3. The increased damage to Starfall is getting reduced to 10% from 20%, but given the new power of Starfall it will still be buff when compared to pre-patch moonkin DPS. The big question with the Glyph of Focus is how significant is the range nerf when it is used?

That a really hard question to answer because it is quite subjective, but the range reduction is not as big of a penalty as some of you may think. The Glyph of Focus does reduce the range of the base Starfall from 30 yards to 15 yards, but most moonkin have Nature's Reach fully talented, and this still increases the range of Starfall by 6 yards. Therefore, by using the Glyph of Focus you are reducing the range of your Starfall from 36 yards to 21 yards rather then 18 yards as I and some other people expected.

That said, losing 15 yards on your range may be a big deal, and can be seen as both a pro and a con. As ranged DPS most of us are used to trying to stay at max range to allow room for Melee and healers. Finding the new range will take some adjustment and will be difficult to determine. However, the smaller range can also help you focus your Starfall DPS on desired targets.

Glyph of Insect Swarm - Once considered a standard Raiding glyph, the Glyph of Insect Swarm had started to fall out of favor with high end raiding moonkin even before the buff to Starfall. The reason, is the 3% hit debuff Insect Swarm provides when it is not glyphed. I am not 100% confident in the math, from what I understand it actually translates to about 6% for the tanks, and that can be a big help for some of the very hard hitting heroic bosses in ICC. It is possible for Hunters to provide this debuff also, but it is at a much more significant DPS loss then it is for moonkin.

If you don't need the hit debuff that Insect Swarm provides, then Glyph of Insect Swarm is still a very solid DPS buff and compares well to the other available options.

Glyph of Starfire & Glyph of Moonfire- These two glyphs are so closely tied together that I am going to handle them in the same comment. Both are standard moonkin raiding glyph from the early days of WotLK and center around high Moonfire uptime. The problem with that is that Moonfire has not scaled well with the higher levels of gear. So some moonkin are questioning if Moonfire should even be cast when you are not moving.

The fate of these two glyphs really depends on how often you cast Moonfire. If you are only casting Moonfire while on the move then these two glyphs obviously have significantly less value. Therefore, it is possible that one or both of them could be dropped from your rotation.

My Recommendation:

I've put several different glyph combinations through SimulationCraft. The glyph combination with the highest DPS was IS/Focus/Starfall, but there are several reasons why I am hesitant to use that combination. I have been sold on the value of the hit debuff provided by Insect Swarm therefore I am reluctant to glyph IS and lose the debuff. The Glyph of Focus is still solid glyph at 10%, but the range reduction bothers me a lot. Since most fights require some sort of "spread out" mechanic, reducing my range for a 10% buff on a spell use once a minute seems to be a bigger headache then it is worth.

Therefore, I am recommending a Starfire/Moonfire/Starfall glyph combination. It may not have the highest DPS potential, but it is not fair behind the other options. It has the added benefit of being very similar to our current glyph set up which means it has less of an impact our rotation.

The Rotation:

Along with the glyph debate, there has been a debate going on about which DoTs should be cast and when after patch 3.3.3. As I said before, the Moonkin DoTs do not scale well at the higher levels of gear since haste has very little impact on them and crit has almost none.

This has lead some moonkin to advocate a single DoT rotation when patch 3.3.3 is released. The common suggestion form this camp is that Moonfire should only be cast while moving, and that your casting time should be spent on Nukes or on IS if the hit debuff is needed.

I have tried to plugging in several different rotations into SimulationCraft where the amount you cast Moonfire is limited or dropped all together. The only time I found it was a DPS increase over the current standard was if you used a IS/Focus/Starfall glyph combination. Using the Moonfire/Starfire/Starfall glyph combination I suggested above, Moonfire was still a strong part of the rotation. Therefore, I don't recommend any big change to your rotation. However, if you do decide to drop or limit your DoT usage in the future, just remember that it is always important to cast DoTs while on the move if they are not already on the boss.

TL-DR:

Over the past few weeks there has been a lot of speculation on what the impact of the Starfall buff will be. The fact that Glyph of Starfall becomes a standard raiding glyph is a bit of a no brainer, but there were other serious questions raised about the value of our other glyphs and about he value of your DoTs.

In the end, it is my belief that Glyph of Moonfire and Glyph of Starfire are still the best options for our other two Glyph slots. There are other options that may increase your DPS but they come at a price. Also, since Insect Swarm is valuable for the hit debuff it places on the target, and Moonfire is critical for Glyph of Moonfire and Glyph of Starfall, I do not recommend that either DoT be dropped from the standard Moonkin DPS rotation. That said, I highly recommend that you test out the various options on SimulationCraft on your own.

Moonfire, Scaling, and ICC Raiding

In the Moonkin Basics post I did last week I said "there is some discussion that Moonfire does not scale well at the very top levels of gear." In this post I want to take a closer look at that statement, and see if there is a need to change the Moonkin rotation when you complete your

The Hypothesis:

The Hypothesis is this. Moonfire does not scale as well as Starfire or Wrath, and that the DPET (Damage per Execute Time) of an unextended Moonfire is less then that of an Eclipsed Starfire or Wrath. Therefore, Moonfire should not be cast while Eclipse is active if you cannot guarantee Moonfire will be extended. In short, you should cast Moonfire during Solar Eclipse.

Important Note: This hypothesis only applies to people with the 4T10 tier set. If you have the 2T9 set bonus or a lower level of gear, this discussion does not currently apply to your situation.

The Assumptions:

• Once again I am using myself as an example. My calculations will use 4263 Spell Power, 33.13% Haste without NG, 60.5% SF crit chance, 57.5% Wrath crit chance, and 63.5% MF crit chance. The only exception to this rule is that I assume I have the 4T10 set bonus.
  
• I am also assume the use of Glyph of Moonfire and the Glyph of Starfire.


• I am also using my talent spec for the calculations, and I assume full raid buffs.


• In the SimulationCraft, I use myself again. The only change I make is to upgrade my Helm and my Legs to the 264 tier 10 pieces.

The Math:

First lets calculate the execute times of Wrath and Moonfire. This isn't hugely necessary for the calculations because they are the same number, but I like to be as accurate as possible. As I said above, I have 33.13% haste without Nature's Grace. To calculate the uptime of Nature's Grace I will use Wrath's crit chance of 57.5%

NG Uptime = (1-(1-0.575)^3) = 92.32%

Execute time with NG = 1.5/(1.3313*1.2) = 0.9389, therefore 1 second
Execute time without NG = 1.5/1.3313 = 1.1267 seconds

Avg Execute Time = (1*0.9232)+(1.1267*(1-0.9232)) = 1.0097 seconds

Now lets calculate the damage of the average Wrath cast with Eclipse. I will calculate this number with and without the 4T10 set bonus.

Avg Non Crit Wrath = (592+(0.6714*4263))*(1.53*1.13*1.04*1.03*1.03) = 6589 Damage

Avg Wrath with 4T10 = 6589 + (1.2363*6589*0.575) = 11273 Damage

Wrath DPET with 4T10 = 11273 / 1.0097 = 11165 DPET

Finally lets look at the average damage of a Moonfire for all levels of extension. These calculations do not include the 2T9 set bonus.

Avg Non Crit MF DD = (441+(0.1495*4263))*(0.3*1.13*1.04*1.03*1.03) = 403 Damage

Avg MF DD with 4T10 = 403 + (1.2363*403*0.635) = 719 Damage

Avg MF DoT Tick = (200 + (0.1302*4263))*(1.95*1.13*1.04*1.03*1.03) = 1836 Damage

Avg DPET 5 tick MF = (719+(1836*5))/1.0097 = 9804 DPET
Avg DPET 6 tick MF = (719+(1836*6))/1.0097 = 11622 DPET
Avg DPET 7 tick MF = (719+(1836*7))/1.0097 = 13441 DPET
Avg DPET 8 tick MF = (719+(1836*8))/1.0097 = 15259 DPET

As you can see the DPET of an unextended Moonfire is just 9804 DPET. That is less then an Eclipsed Wrath with an average DPET of 11165. However, extending Moonfire by just one tick increases the DPET of Moonfire to 11622 DPET. Therefore, it is possible to increase your DPS by skipping Moonfire during Solar Eclipse if you don't think you will be casting Starfire in the next 15 seconds.

SimulationCraft Results:

I decided to ask this question to SimulationCraft as well. In this test I ran the simulation two different ways. I first ran it with the default rotation where Moonfire is refreshed when it drops off of the mob. In the second simulation, Moonfire is only refreshed if it is not ticking on the boss and Solar Eclipse is not up.

In the first simulation where Moonfire is refreshed whenever it falls off of the mob the total DPS for the simulation was 9497 DPS. In the second simulation where Moonfire was not refreshed during Solar Eclipse the total DPS was 9512.

As you can see, not casting Moonfire did increase the DPS, but it was just a 0.16% increase. I did run several other simulations were moonfire was only skipped if there was a lot of time left on Solar Eclipse, but none of them increased the DPS of the rotation.

TL-DR:

If you have the 4T10 set bonus, it is possible for a moonkin to increase their DPS by skipping Moonfire during Solar Eclipse. However, the increase is very small, hard to judge, and may not be worth the effort. Moonfire should always be refreshed if Lunar Eclipse is up or neither Eclipse is up.

How to Find Moonkin Stat Valuations

Update: This post is out dated but the instructions at the bottom telling how to find your own stat valuations are still mostly correct. If you got here due to a link on my gear guide that is the section you want. If you got here by another method I suggest you look at my raiding guide for more accurate information.

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The first draft of my ICC gear list is almost ready.With it will come the usual questions. How much do you value haste? How did you calculate the valuations? Why are your valuations different now then they were on your last list?

While some of the answers can get complicated, but most of the confusion regarding my changing valuations can be explained with two simple answers. 1. I make mistakes. 2. Things change.

In the past, when I estimated my stats for my simulator I did a real rough estimation. I wouldn't say the stats I used were wrong, but they were probably squewed in a way that changed the results some. This caused me to favor some stats a little more then I should have.

Though my mistakes do have an impact, the changing nature of WoW has a much bigger impact. At the very least stats change. As we gear up we get more Spell Power, Haste, and Crit. Each of these stats depend on the others and changing one will change the marginal value of the others. While all of the rating stats will genererally increase in Marginal Value as you gear up, they will not increase in value at the same rate. So, how we valued a stat during T7 content is very different then how we value the same stat in T10 content.

Over the last six months, we have had several things change. For obvious reasons this will change the way our stats interact. Therefore, I feel the need to restate the stat equation. I've looked at this using several tools, and for the most part they all agree.

Below Haste Soft Cap (400 haste rating):

Hit Rating > Spell Power > Haste Rating > Crit Rating
In unusual situations Haste may be greater then Spell Power, but that is probably due to irregular gearing choices.

Over Haste Soft Cap, but below Lunar Crit Cap:

Hit Rating > Spell Power > Crit Rating > Haste Rating
This is a change from what I've said before, but there is enough space between Crit and Haste that I'm confident Crit is better point for point.

Over Lunar Crit Cap:

Hit Rating > Spell Power > Crit Rating = Haste Rating
According to the simulators and spreadsheets Crit is still slightly better, but they are two close to really matter.

These general rules don't mean that Haste is worthless after the soft cap, or that Crit is worthless after the Lunar Crit cap. They are still very good stats, and better then both Int and Spirit. This is really a guide as to how you should gem and enchant your gear. It may also help when choosing between two very similar items.

Finding Stat values using WrathCalcs.

Some of you may be thinking why should I believe you now. Every time you say something you end up changing it a couple of months later.

To be completely honest I agree, but for slightly different reasons. Stat valuations are highly variable based upon the assumptions used to create them. I can't possible make the valuations for everyone so I use myself as an example. Luckily it is fairly easy for all of us to find out our own valuations.

The first place you can find it is using WrathCalcs. You can find the spread sheet here at the bottom of the Moonkin Think tank thread.

It is very easy to use. After you down load the spreadsheet, look up your toon on the armory. Then plug your armory stats into Column C of the spread sheet. After that make sure you have all of the appropriate talents, buffs, and debuffs selected in columns C, G, and K.

After the sheet is fully filled out the marginal values of your stats will be available in DPS for in column D. To convert them to my format you just have to divide each of the values by the Spell Power valuation.

Finding Stat values using SimulationCraft.

You can download SimulationCraft from here.

Click the Options tab at the top, and then click the Scaling tab below that. Then select the stats you would like SimulationCraft to evaluate. Just select the standard DPS stats with the addition of Int and Spirit. Selecting the other stats will just make the analysis take longer. You may also want to make sure all of the buffs and debuffs are selected in there respective tabs but they should already be selected by default.

To import your toon click the import tab. You can import from several websites but I suggest using the armory. The import tab works just like a Web Browser. Find your toon and then hit the import button in the bottom right hand corner.

Clicking the import button should automatically move you to the Simulate Tab. At this point just hit the Simulate button in the bottom right hand corner unless you want to make some changes to the toon you imported. The results of your analysis should pop out in about a minute and will be available about halfway down the page.